Consultants bearish on Democrats' chances in 2010 Texas races

Several political consultants told the Houston Chronicle that any Democrat seeking statewide office in 2010 — including, potentially, Houston Mayor Bill White — faces an uphill battle based on 2008 election results.

The chances are “more bleak than any Democrat honestly wants to admit,” Republican consultant Mark Sanders, who ran Democrat Tony Sanchez’s 2004 governor campaign, told the Chronicle. “It’s not going to happen in 2010. There are just too many factors working against that.”

Chief among the concerns is the 8 to 10 point divide between Republicans and Democrats in the 2008 results, even in a year where statewide turnout for Democrats was boosted by the popularity of President-elect Barack Obama.

Obama lost the state to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by 11 points. While that’s a tremendous gain from the 23-point loss by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004, it’s still a substantial margin for a Democrat to be eliminate in two years. Consultants attributed the modest Democratic gains to a growing Hispanic population, which polls show has turned away from Republicans due to the debate over illegal immigration.

Jerry Polinard, political science chair at the University of Texas-Pan American, told the Chronicle that the 2010 election “will lean red instead of blue, but the clock is ticking.” He predicted that without Republicans attracting more Hispanic support, Democrats could sweep statewide elections within the next three election cycles.

Surprisingly, many Republican consultants agreed.

“The demographics in this state clearly show that the Hispanic vote is growing each election cycle, and that Republicans are not securing a good share of that vote,” GOP consultant Reggie Bashur said. “We cannot secure 25 or 35 percent of that vote and expect to remain competitive.”

While the signs remain positive for Democrats over the long-term, the signs for 2010 are much more negative. To have a realistic chance, consultants said Democrats need a weakened GOP opponent in either Gov. Rick Perry or U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison after a what could be hard-fought Republican primary. In addition, Democrats would need a successful beginning to Obama’s presidency, particularly related to the economic crisis.

“In a more positive Democratic climate with a good candidate like White, you might bring (the margin) down to the mid-single digits,” said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “Whether you could bring it down to zero in 2010 — or in other words, win — is a tall order.”

As PolitickerTX.com previously reported, White intends to address his political future in the coming days or weeks. He can’t run for Houston mayor again due to term limits, and in addition to a possible governor run, is rumored to be considering a U.S. Senate run to replace Hutchison, should she vacate her seat to run for governor as expected.

White had been rumored as a candidate for an Obama Cabinet position as energy secretary, but the Chronicle reported that prospect was “seeming more remote.”